FED Senaryoları/Stratejileri

FOMC toplantA�sA� sonrasA�nda aA�A�klanacak olan paragraflar üzerinden olasA�lA�klarA� tartA�AYmak istiyorum. Her senaryo iA�in olasA� kA�sa vadeli piyasa tepkisini ve parantez içinde ana trendi de ekliyorum.

1-A�Ekonomik durumunA� tanA�mlandA�AYA� paragrafta yapA�labilecek deAYiAYiklikler.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown some improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

MayA�s ve Haziran’A�n ortasA�na kadar olan dA�nemde aA�A�klanan veriler ABD ekonomisinde büyümenin ciddi bir deAYiAYim gA�sterdiAYine dair iAYaret vermedi (hatta kA�smen yavaAYladA�) . Bu nedenle modest,moderate, substantial, stronger gibi kelimelerden yine “idare eder, A�lA�mlA�” anlamA�na gelecek olanlar tercih edilecektir. Bernanke’nin basA�n toplantA�sA�nda da istihdam iA�in daha A�nce sA�ylediAYi gibi “substantial” yani belirgin bir toparlanma olmasA� gerektiAYini sA�ylemesini bekliyorum.

Ekonomik (büyüme ve istihdam)A�gA�rünümün deAYiAYtirilmemesi durumunda piyasa tepkisi: hisse yukarı (yukarA�), dolar aAYaAYA� (yukarA�) AltA�n yukarı (1420 aAYA�lmadA�AYA� sürece aAYaAYA�) Bono getirileri aAYaAYA� (yukarA�) .

Ekonomik gA�rünümün veya basA�n toplantA�sA�nda aA�A�klamalarA�n yukarı yA�nde deAYiAYtiAYi algA�sA� oluAYursa: Hisse aAYaAYA� (yukarA�) , Dolar yukarı (yukarA�), altA�n aAYaAYA�, bono getirileri yukarı (yukarA�)

2-Enflasyon gA�rünümünde deAYiAYim.

Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Revize edilmesi yüksek bir ihtimal. Cuma günü enflasyon trendlerinden bahsetmiAYtim. Gerek kamu (istenenden daha hA�zlA� bir AYekilde daralA�yor, buna vurgu olabilir)A�gerekse ücretlerin seyri ve ana gA�stergeler aAYaAYA� yA�nde bir trende iAYaret ediyor. Finans piyasalarA�nda beklentiler (breakeven oranlar) net bir AYekilde düAYerken tüketicilerde (güven endeksleri) benzer bir düAYüAY gA�rmüyoruz. FED AYu kelimelerle bir deAYiAYiklik yapabilir:

OlasA� deAYiAYimlerde kullanA�labilecek cümleler iA�in A�nceki FOMC’leri baz alarak tahminde bulunabiliriz:A�“Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower” Azayet enflasyonda bir trend dA�nüAYü görüyorlarsa bu önemli bir geliAYme olacaktA�r. Deflasyon tehlikesinin gündemde olduAYu 2010da kullandA�klarA� cümle ise “Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term”.A�A� Enflasyonun risk olarak belirlenmesi çok kritik bir gA�rüAY deAYiAYimi anlamA�na gelir. Ancak QE miktarA�nA�n arttA�rA�lmasA� kesinlikle sA�z konusu olmaz.

Enflasyon gA�rünümü/riski aAYaAYA� yA�nlü deAYiAYtirilirse: hisse yukarı (yukarA�), dolar aAYaAYA� (yukarA�) AltA�n yukarı ancak zayA�fA�, Bono getirileri aAYaAYA� (yukarA�) .

Enflasyon gA�rünümünün deAYiAYmemesi- Kendi baAYA�na bir fiyatlama yaratmayacaktA�r.

3- Ekonomik tahminlerde deAYiAYiklik

KA�sa vadeli büyüme ve enflasyon beklentilerinin aAYaAYA� yA�nde revize edilmesini bekliyorum. Mart 2013 toplantA�sA�nda 2013 A�AYsizlik beklentisi 7.3-7.5% olarak verilmiAYti ve MayA�s itibarA� ile 7.6% ile bu hedefe çok yaklaAYtA�k. Ancak oranA�n sadece NFP (daha doAYrusu Household) ile deAYil katA�lA�m oranA�ndaki geliAYmelerle de hareket ettiAYini biliyoruz. Bu nedenle bu toplantA�da deAYiAYiklik beklemiyorum ancak sadece 51% ile….

Azayet işsizlik beklentilerinde net bir aAYaAYA� yA�nlü revizyon olursa piyasa bunu çok agresif olmasa bileA�QE’nin sonlandA�rmasA�na yA�nelik fiyatlayacaktA�r.A�zellikle 7.0% rakamA�nA�n beklentilere girmesi durumunda.

4-Strateji paragrafA�nda deAYiAYiklik

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored

A�nce WSJ haberi ile baAYlayalA�m. AltA�nA�n A�izdiAYim cümleden de anlaAYA�lacaAYA� üzere QE azaltA�lsa veya bitirilse bile faizlerin belirtilen koAYullar var olduAYu sürece (iAYsizlik 6.5% , vs)A� artmayacaAYA�nA� FED zaten net bir AYekilde sA�ylüyor. Ancak anlaAYA�lan ara ara WSJ’de de okuyup rahatlamak isteyen bir piyasamA�z var.

Bu paragraflarda bir deAYiAYiklik beklemiyorum. Ancak AYayet giriAY paragrafA� ve beklentiler kuvvetli bir ekonomiye upgrade edildi ise bu paragraflardaA�3 senaryo olabilir. 1. DoAYrudan varlA�k alA�mlarA�nda azalma. HiA� ihtimal vermiyorum. 2. VarlA�k alA�mlarA�nda deAYiAYime gitmeden itfalarA�n yeniden roll edilmeyeceAYinin aA�A�klanmasA�. 3. Increase or reduce kelimelerinden increase’inA�A�düAYürülmesi. QE dA�nemi bitiyor olarak algA�lanA�r.

1-3 arasA� herhangi bir geliAYme durumunda hisseler düAYer (alA�m fA�rsatA�) , 10 yA�llA�k getiriler yükselir (trend zaten yukarA�)A�, dolar yükselir (trend zaten yukarA�) , altA�n yeni dip yapar.

GA�rüAYüm sadece ufak müdahalelerle (enflasyon)A�1 MayA�s aA�A�klamasA�nA� yansA�tan bir aA�A�klama olmasA� yA�nünde. Bu durumda hisse yukarA�, bono getirileri yukarı (orta vade satA�AY fA�rsatA�), dolar aAYaAYA�ya (orta vade alA�AY fA�rsatA�) ve altA�n yukarı olacaktA�r.

Konu ile ilgili daha A�nceki maillerimde FED’in QE’yi ekonomi toparlandA�AYA� iA�in deAYil yarattA�AYA� faydanA�n verdiAYi zarardan daha az olmasA� nedeni ile sonlandA�racaAYA�nA� belirtmiAYtim. Nitekim http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fac-20130517.pdfA�linkinde tamamA�nA� okuyabileceAYiniz gibi 17 MayA�staki FAC toplantA�sA�nda bu konu detaylA� ele alA�nA�yor:

There are potential risks associated with current policy. The Feda��s securities purchases have reduced mortgage yields and, to a lesser extent, Treasury yields. Current low bond yields are disruptive to management of fixed-income portfolios, retirement funds, consumer savings, and retirement planning. They may encourage unsophisticated investors to take on undue risk to achieve better returns. MBS purchases account for over 70% of gross issuance, causing price distortion and volatility in the MBS market. Fixed-income investors worry that attractive mortgage-backed securities are in very tight supply. Higher premium coupons carry too much exposure to prepayments, potentially led by new government support programs for housing. Many are concerned about the Feda��s significant presence in the market. They have underweighted MBS in favor of corporate, municipal, and emerging-market bonds. There is also concern about the possibility of a breakout of inflation, although current inflation risk is not considered unmanageable, and of an unsustainable bubble in equity and fixed-income markets given current prices.

a�? Further, current policy has created systemic financial risks and potential structural problems for banks. Net interest margins are very compressed, making favorable earnings trends difficult and encouraging banks to take on more risk. The Feda��s aggressive purchases of 15-year and 30-year MBS have depressed yields for the a�?bread and buttera�? investment in most bank portfolios; banks seeking additional yield have had to turn to investment options with longer durations, lower liquidity, and/or higher credit risk. Finally, the regressive nature of the artificially compressed savings yields creates pent-up demand within bank deposit portfolios; these deposits may be at risk once yields begin to rise and competitive pressures increase.

Bu nedenle FED’in QE’yi artA�k bitirmek istediAYini ancak ekonominin net bir toparlanma gA�stermemesi nedeni ile erken hareket etmekten korktuAYunu düAYünüyorum. Eylül ilk makul tarih olsa bile verilerin akA�AYA�na baAYlA� olarak hareket 2014e bile kalabilir. A�zellikle de Bernanke kararA� yeni baAYkanA�n vermesini istiyorsa.

Azant Manukyan

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